When a reality star meet a real dictator

Flashback 2024 – Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that he alone could end the devastating Ukraine War, and that too in just 24 hours.

Now six months later, Trump is facing an embarrassing reality, that Vladimir Putin is simply not willing to play ball.

Trump’s bluster has met its match in Putin’s iron fist – and guess who’s winning?

TRUMP-PUTIN GEOPOLITICAL CIRCUS

With Donald Trump around, geo-politics is no longer a matter of gravitas; it has become a circus where no one seems to know who the ringmaster is or for that matter, even who the clown is.

The only predictable trait that Trump displays is unpredictability and a penchant to announce he is going to punish a nation… or its leader. And his latest target is Vladimir Putin who has been helming Russia for about 25 years.

When campaigning in 2024, Trump would insist Putin is a “great guy” and that he will bring an end to the wars around the world. Trump publicly even humiliated the Ukraine president Vladimir Zelenskyy at the White House and bullied him into re-starting peace talks with Putin’s Russia.

Back then, there were conspiracy theorists in Washington who pronounced that Trump is somehow beholden to Putin. Some wondered if he is genuinely obsessed with getting the Nobel Peace prize.

But there are only a limited number of stunts that you can perform in a circus. Trump eventually realised that he and his team have spectacularly failed to stop the two conflicts that really matter: the war between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas and the big one between Russia and Ukraine that is on since February 2022.

HOW PUTIN TURNED THE TABLES

A few months ago, Trump blamed Zelenskyy for the prolonged war and virtually hailed Putin as a leader who seeks peace. Predictably, it took a few weeks for the tables to turn. Now, Putin is the arch villain and Trump has thunderingly vowed all sorts of punishments against Putin and Russia.

The latest bouquet of threat from Washington is two fold: the United States will impose even more punitive sanctions against Russia. And it will also impose a further 100% tariff on Russian goods.

Suddenly, the neocons in Washington who were in hibernation since November 2024 when Trump won the elections are back in action, guns blazing and regime change delusions unfolding.

The primary target is Putin and Russia. But this avatar of Trump is also going after China, India and Brazil. Why? Because, Trump aides say that the three countries are strengthening Putin by maintaining trade and other ties with Russia.

In their fantasy world, these neocons think such backyard bullying will bring Putin down to his knees. And then who knows? Putin could sue for peace and then Zelenskyy would nominate Trump for yet another Nobel Peace prize.

The problem is: it is fantasy and Trump is engaging in childish games. For one, the United States has already imposed every possible sanction against Russia since February 2022 when it invaded Ukraine. Virtually all economic and financial assets of Russia and Russian entities have been frozen and or seized. The country has been locked out of the dollar designated global financial system. Trade is more or less frozen.

According to the US chamber of commerce, trade between US and Russia amounted to a paltry $3.5 billion in 2024. What difference will it make to Putin if Trump imposes another 100% tariffs?

Perhaps the Trump Team is aware of this. So why not go after China, India and Brazil to checkmate Putin?

TRUMP’S MODI, XI LULA ‘FANTASY’

But again, it is a fantasy that will remain one. Take the case of India. Since February 2022, it has ignored sustained pressure from G-7 countries and “increased” oil purchases at bargain prices from Russia. Does anyone think India will cave in now? For that matter, does anyone seriously think that Brazil will cave in? The very thought of Xi Jinping caving in is laughable. Together, the three countries have a GDP that almost equals that of the US.

Not to mention Europe that is still very dependent on gas imports from Russia.

Geo-politically speaking, the post Cold War era of a unipolar world is long gone. It is a multipolar world. Trump can bluff and bluster and perform for the gallery. He can threaten Putin with all manner of punishments. But the man in Kremlin will keep doing what he does. Rule Russia with an iron fist and engage with the rest of the world as he pleases.

Meanwhile, the circus in Washington could move elsewhere. And don’t be surprised in a few weeks time if Trump shifts focus and announces he is resuming efforts to take over Greenland. Or making Canada the 51st state of the US. Mere mortals like us can only watch and applaud the performance.

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