Recent India-Pak war

In the recent war between India and Pakistan, the ceasefire was implemented by both the countries. In the news media of both the countries, there were a number of news stories, some of which were fake, related to the war and the ceasefire. Days after the ceasefire, these news continued. Both countries later sent delegates to different countries to present their sides, which India should have not done. As will be discussed, sending delegations was a political mistake. But before the latest war is discussed, here’s a brief history of some of the major encounters between the two countries.

To date there have been several major wars and encounters between India and Pakistan, all of which were started by Pakistan. In late 1947 Pakistan attacked Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Maharaja of J&K had not yet acceded with India and his army was unable to resist Pakistan’s army which had captured most of J&K. The Pakistani army was about to capture Srinagar and its airport. Then J&K Maharaja acceded to India and India immediately deployed its Army and Air Force which were able to push back the Pakistan Army out of two thirds of J&K. Unfortunately, then Prime Minister Pandit Nehru, at the insistence of the Governor General Mountbatten, agreed to a ceasefire.

In 1965, again Pakistan attacked J&K. India counter responded militarily in J&K and also in Punjab. While Pakistan was able to capture a part of the Indian territory. India was able to capture much more of Pakistani territory. India’s forces had reached the outskirts of Lahore. This war ended with a treaty executed at Tashkent mediated by Russia.

In 1971, Pakistan refused to honor the national assembly election results and did not allow Shaikh Mujibur Rahman, whose party Awami League, had won the election, to become Pakistan’s Prime Minister. Instead, Pakistan imposed martial law in Bangladesh. Rahman and a large number of other Bangladeshis were arrested and thousands of Bangladeshis were killed. Bangladeshis were opposed to the martial law and formed Mukti Bahni which, with the help of India’s Army, started a fight against Pakistan’s army in Bangladesh. In response, Pakistan started a war on the Western front also which was opposed by the Indian Army. The Indian Army captured a large part of Pakistan’s territory and freed Bangladesh from Pakistan’s control.

Pursuant to Simla agreement, India released Pakistan’s army personnel captured in Bangladesh and vacated the land captured in the Western Pakistan. In 1999, when India and Pakistan were ready to negotiate a peace deal, the Pakistan army attacked Kargil in J&K and occupied parts of the Kargil districts. India successfully repulsed the Pakistani army from Kargil. As a result of this aggression, India refused to continue any negotiations. In 2014, India and Pakistan reached another peace agreement, which resolved all the issues including Pakistan’s acceptance of J&K’s status quo; Pakistan’s inspired terrorists attacked Air Force bases in Pathankot and Uri. As a result, India refused to execute the treaty.

On August 5, 2019, India revoked Article 370 and converted J&K into a centrally controlled Union Territory. Pakistan tried to provoke a violent retaliation against this decision. However, it could not succeed. Pakistan could not adjust to the change of the J&K status and started encouraging terrorists to engage in the killing of the J&K residents including tourists, pilgrims, and migrant labor. The latest such attack was on April 22, 2025, when Pakistan’s inspired terrorists killed 26 tourists for no reason. PM Modi issued a stern warning to Pakistan and terrorists. In the beginning, some were proposing to pursue the diplomatic course of action against Pakistan. However, PM Modi decided to pursue a military action against Pakistan. After careful analysis, the armed forces selected specific targets in POK and Punjab and air strikes were conducted on the night of May 7. Perhaps, the time between April 22 and May 7 gave sufficient time to Pakistan to respond effectively.

As usual, claims by India and Pakistan have been exaggerated. However, the fact is that India did hit more targets and damaged more areas in Pakistan than was done by Pakistan. There is no doubt that due to the use of Chinese and Turkish drones, the extent of Pakistan’s response was unexpected. This conflict has given a new life to Pakistan’s army which had become very unpopular because of its treatment of Imran Khan. However, the claims don’t matter and do not change the reality that there is a ceasefire. Graciously India acknowledged its loss whereas Pakistan has still not acknowledged anything.

Is the current conflict over now? No. Though not frequently, the cross-border firings may continue. However, Pakistan will be forced to reduce to some extent its support to the terrorist activities in J&K. The Indian government may target some terrorist residing in Pakistan as India had done in the past which I described in my article “Tit for Tat, India’s aggressive policy against terrorism” posted on January 10, 2024, in Times of India.

Pakistan’s main worry is the Indus Water Treaty. Pakistan would try every means including the appeasement of the Indian government. This war as well as India’s ban on all business with Pakistan and suspension of the Indian Water Treaty (“IWT”) would have an adverse effect on Pakistan’s fragile economy. If India reduces the water flow to Pakistan, it could cause famine type situation in Pakistan. Due to its fragile economic situation, Pakistan realized that a long-term war would seriously damage its economic situation. After claiming a victory, Pakistan approached a number of countries including the US for a ceasefire.

Finally, the US government decided to help Pakistan. Congress is harping on a non issue that India agreed to a ceasefire under pressure from Trump and are referring to a number of videos, some of which is fake, showing Trump making these claims.

The fact is that US Vice-President J D Vance first called Pakistan’s PM Sharif and then he called India’s external affairs minister Jaishankar. There has been no news in the foreign media about Trump’s role. Even if it is assumed that Trump had role, SO WHAT? Why waste time on this useless issue?

First, Pakistan decided to send the delegations to a number of countries to present its version of the war and position on Kashmir and other issues. Then India also decided to send delegations of Members of Parliament to the USA and other countries to brief them about India’s position and the war. India is a superpower and does not need to do any briefing. Sending delegations was a gross wastage of the taxpayer’s money. The delegation did not change anything as India already has a wide support. Israel does not send delegations. Pakistan definitely needs to explain its position to the world, but India does not need to. Sending delegations got India into Pakistan’s trap of reviving the Kashmir issue which the other countries have forgotten.

Some Indian leaders condemned IMF for granting loans to Pakistan and expressed displeasure about India abstaining from the IMF’s voting for loan and not opposing it. IMF’s rules only allow voting for a resolution or abstaining and there is no provision for voting against any resolution. Some Pakistani sources and Indian opposition parties have claimed that Trump has placed both Pakistan and India on the same level. This is nonsense. First, India and U.S. business is at a much higher level than that with Pakistan. After India’s independence, all U.S. Presidents have invited Indian Prime Ministers to White House which, with one exception, has not happened in the case of Pakistan. During his first term, President Trump imposed a unique restriction on the Staff of Pakistan Embassy in Washington, DC which prohibited them travelling more than 20 miles from Washington, DC. Such a ban on any country was unprecedented. In fact, India itself has put herself at Pakistan’s level by sending delegations.

Should the current situation continue forever? Absolutely not. If Pakistan softens its rhetoric related to India and J&K and stops supporting terrorists, India may consider to soften its stand. India could then consider opening businesses and other communication channels including medical tourism. If all things go well, both countries can proceed to have a normal relation with each other.

It should be pointed out that the younger educated Pakistanis do not care about Kashmir and are proud of their Hindu heritage. Many Pakistanis like Indian movies. Hopefully, one day Pakistan will shed her historical animosity toward India and a good relationship will be established between India and Pakistan.

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