How Israel’s Operation Rising Lion unfolded

Israel has been threatening to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities for years. It finally did on Friday morning, also hitting ballistic missile sites and taking out Iran’s top military brass and several nuclear scientists. Dubbed ‘Operation Rising Lion,’ the attack reportedly came in waves, involved over 200 Israeli Air Force aircraft that dropped over 330 munitions on around 100 targets across Iran. Here’s the lowdown on how the unprecedented strikes unfolded.

Timing: The strikes came just after the IAEA published a resolution that declared Iran wasn’t complying with its nuclear non proliferation obligations. Israel has long advocated a military solution for what it says is Iran’s determination to acquire a nuclear
bomb – something Tehran denies vehemently. The strikes were also preceded by US pulling out some personnel from the region. Therefore, everyone, including Tehran, knew something was coming. But the scope and nature were unknown.

The feint: There were some doubts whether the strikes would happen this week, thanks to some misdirection. First, US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said Israel won’t attack Iran without a US greenlight. And since Washington was negotiating with Tehran over the latter’s nuclear programme, this was taken to mean that the possibility of a strike was remote. Second, Trump himself played along and indicated that he was against Israeli strikes at this point. However, all of this was a feint as Trump, after the strikes, threatened Iran with further Israeli attacks – with American weapons – should Tehran refuse a fresh deal over its nuclear programme.

The sucker punch: What seems to have caught Iranian authorities by surprise is that Israel’s Mossad appeared to have struck the first blow in the strikes by launching attacks from within Iran on Tehran’s air defence and ballistic missile launchers. Mossad reportedly set up a covert drone base inside Iranian territory for the purpose and smuggled in equipment. The tactic appears to be similar to what the Ukrainians recently did with their Operation Spiderweb where drones were smuggled deep into Russia and used to wreak havoc on Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet at four different airbases. Once Iran’s air defence and ballistic launchers were crippled from within, it allowed the Israeli Air Force to easily establish aerial dominance.

It came in waves: The strikes were unprecedented in scale. IRGC commander-in-chief Major General Hossein Salami was killed alongside armed forces chief General Mohammad Bagheri. Strikes took place on Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, Parchin military complex and the Khorramabad ballistic missile base. Six Iranian nuclear scientists have also been killed in the attacks.

Iranian response: Iran has vowed a harsh response and said that the attack on its nuclear facilities is a declaration of war. Hitherto, Iran launched around 100 drones against Israel in retaliation for the strikes. But there is little indication of any damage to Israel. However, this is likely to be just the opening salvo. A stronger response from Iran is expected, which in turn could lead to escalatory military exchanges, putting the entire region on edge. Both Tel Aviv and Tehran have been signalling this round of conflict is unlikely to wind up quickly.

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