A long Iran saga

The recent Middle East crisis which started on October 7, 2023, has important aspects such as (1) almost complete demolition of Hamas and Hezbollah supported by Iran; (2) occupation of Syria by the modern and people oriented militants; (3) decline in Iran’s military power and her influence in the region; (4) excellent intelligence operations, precise and strong military action by Israel; and (5) the final action by the US leading to a ceasefire. Since World War II, while the European countries expressed concerns about the military actions by Israel against Iran, this is the first time the US military
action was well planned and firm.

Iran’s king, Shah Raza Pahlavi was a well-educated, forward looking Persian and a non- fanatic Muslim.  In fact, he wanted Iran to pursue her glory prior to being a Muslim country.  Unfortunately, he became a ruthless ruler and subordinate to the USA. In 1951, Mr. Mohamad Mosaddegh was democratically elected as the Prime Minister of Iran.  He wanted to become independent of the USA and Western countries and nationalized the foreign oil companies controlling Iran’s huge oil reserves. The US could not tolerate it and in 1953 with help of CIA, the Iranian military toppled Mosaddegh’s government and put the Shah back as the head of Iran.

Instead of continuing the democratic tradition, Shah again became Iran’s supreme and an oppressive ruler. A Muslim cleric Khameini started an opposition movement against the Shah. He was forced to leave Iran and moved to France where he continued directing the opposition movement to oust the Shah. He was supported even by Iranians who believed in democracy because of their hatred of the Shah. In 1966 I was a student at the University of California Berkeley where Iranian students were politically very active and were opposed to the Shah. In 1978, Morarji Desai, then the Indian Prime Minister, visited Iran. Shah expressed to Desai a fear about his ouster. Mr. Desai advised him to hold the elections and let the people decide the fate.  Shah stated that it was too late to do so.  Morarji stated, “It is never too late to restore democracy.”

However, Shah continued his oppression of the public protests.  Finally, the situation in Iran became uncontrollable and Iran’s military leaders ousted him. He and his family fled to Egypt.
Khameini returned to Iran and established an Islamic rule in Iran and religion became dominant. Khameini also became a supreme ruler and imposed Islamic religious rules. Iranians did not expect it and started resisting these rules and restrictions to their freedom. All the opposition was brutally crushed. Sensing unrest in Iran, Iraq’s
strongman, Saddam Hussein, saw an opportunity to capture Iran and attacked Iran. After initial losses, Iran was able to push back Iraq; finally, a ceasefire was agreed to by Iran and Iraq. Then with its vast oil revenues, Iran started building up its military and weapons manufacturing facilities including nuclear bombs. Slowly Iran became the strongest country in the Middle East and started organizing Shia Muslims militants in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Saudi Arabia. Iraq is another Shia majority country in the Middle East.

Iran wanted to demolish Israel. First, Iran inspired and armed Hezbollah, a militant organization in Lebanon to attack Israel. Then, Iran’s other ally, Hamas, became very active in Palestine. On October 7, 2023, suddenly Hamas started its military action to
occupy Gaze which was a surprise. Through an extensive underground tunnels network, Hamas was able to occupy most of Gaza and capture a number of Israelis and Americans too. As expected, Israel responded vigorously resulting in a lot of destruction and killing of Palestinians living in Gaza. A large number of them became refugees. In Lebanon, Iran’s another ally Hezbollah started attacking Israel’s northern territory. Israel was able to retaliate here also. After finishing off most of the aggressors
in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel started targeting Iran.

In the beginning, Iran retaliated forcefully, however, due its superior military power and unparalleled intelligence and counterintelligence operations, Israel was able to demolish Iran’s military. Israel had the
cell phone numbers, addresses and hideout locations of Iran’s military, scientific, and political personnel. Israel was able to kill a large number of them.  Had Trump not opposed, Israel would have killed Khameini also.  Trump ordered the final blow and on the night of June 22, US B1 bombers demolished Iran’s three largest nuclear facilities.

Evidently, learning from the US long wars in the past, Trump did not want to do the same and pressured Israel and Iran to a ceasefire. As directed by Trump, first Iran and then Israel agreed to the ceasefire.

Now what may happen. There may be some infrequent cases of ceasefire violations, but not serious ones. Iran has lost most of its allies such as Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria.  Houthis in Saudi Arabia have also quietened down. Russia, China and North Korea did not and will not be willing to help much. Hopefully, Israel would get a good deal with Hamas and have a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel and the US would not allow Iran to develop nuclear bombs.  It would not be surprising if they support and encourage a change of regime in Iran. Arabian Countries were very wary of Iran’s military power and
nuclear capability and for this reason, they became friendly with Israel.

Now, they will also breathe more comfortably. Iran was one of the major suppliers of drones and ammunition to Russia and Russia will feel the effect of the loss of these supplies. It will not be surprising if Trump pressurizes Russia and Ukraine to reach a deal. Hopefully, the Middle East and Europe will become peaceful again.

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