Strategic resolve in a turbulent world order

As the Sun sets on the final day of the year 2025, it is a good time to reflect back on the roller coaster year it has been for India, especially on the foreign and national security front. If 2023 was all about India’s G20 presidency, 2024 was more about the national elections, return of Modi 3.0 and domestic consolidation. Yes, the Gaza war came as a surprise in October 2023 while the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh in August 2024 was a rude shock to India’s in its neighbourhood. 

However, 2025 was anything but normal. The return of Donald Trump as the US president would top the chart as the most significant development of the year and the ripple effects of his presidency touched the Indian shores more than once, often causing disruptive effects and throwing challenges at India during the year. 

It was a year marked by renewed security challenges, trade wars, neighbourhood instability, and the continuing war against cross-border terrorism. In most parts, India was tested across multiple fronts and put in situations that demanded resilience, show of strength, exercise of strategic autonomy, strategic patience, and decisive action. What stood out, however, was India’s refusal to be pressured into any submission and its success in exercising hard choices in defence of core national interests.

India and Trump- A story of defiance and resilience

Donald Trump assumed office as the US president on 20th January and his ‘presidential proclamations and decrees continued to torment the globe during the year, including India. His insistence on transactional relationships and his penchant for ‘obedience and subservience’ was perhaps the biggest challenge that India faced. 

Contrary to how the year later panned out, the new Trump presidency had promised a resurgence in ties with India and Prime Minister Modi became only the third foreign leader to be hosted by the White House after President Donald Trump took office on 13th February. However, what followed later in the year laid to rest any optimism that the visit may have generated. 

The first point of friction and public disagreement was perhaps Trump’s claim that he personally stopped the war between India and Pakistan in May, after India had inflicted heavy damage to terrorist and military infrastructure in Pakistan in just 96 hours of swift military strikes during ‘Operation Sindoor’. India repeatedly questioned Trump’s claims publicly and denied any role that Trump had played in the ceasefire. For Trump, who is so accustomed to ‘obedience’, this was a rude shock and despite his repeated assertions later in the year, India continued to deny and defy.

The second point of friction has to be the additional tariffs imposed on India on the pretext that India’s crude oil purchases from Russia were fuelling the Russia war economy in its war against Ukraine. Although the demand from America that India cease crude oil imports from Russia was not a new one (even the Biden administration had been pressuring India to do the same), the fact that the Trump administration imposed 25 percent additional tariffs on Indian goods imported in the US was a shock, making the total tariffs at 50 percent on 27th August. India stood its ground and instead of bowing to pressure, it scouted for new markets across the globe. 

As the year ends, the tariffs are still in place but the Indian exports have grown, more free trade deals have been signed and newer markets are slowly offsetting the losses that may have accrued from lost trade with the US. Meanwhile, in the absence of Indian goods, prices and availability of many goods in America is rising, giving rise to increasing discontent among policy makers and the public in America.

Countering terror as an act of war- Pakistan put on notice

The dastardly terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir on 22nd April and the consequent Operation Sindoor was another key milestone during the year. Outraged by the killing of 26 innocent tourists (all men), shot and killed in cold blood after being identified as non-Muslims and in front of their wives and mothers, India decided to break free from self-imposed strategic restraint. Operation Sindoor, launched on 7th May was the fiercest and first military strike into Pakistan across the international border after the 1971 war. Even during the Kargil War of 1999, India did not cross the international border. In launching targeted strikes deep into Pakistan, India demonstrated its resolve to tackle the menace of terror emanating from Pakistan once and for all, no matter the costs. It also served a warning to Pakistan against any misadventure and has put a new price on any future act of cross-border terror from Pakistan- ‘An Act of War’. 

China- A cautious reset

After almost five years since the Galwan stand-off in June 2020 which brought India and China to confront each other militarily in Eastern Ladakh, the year marked a cautious reset with China. Whether it was influenced by the trade and tariff wars imposed by the US or a realisation that there is a ‘need to move on’ is a separate story.  

The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to New Delhi on 18-19 August where he co-chaired the 24th round of the Special Representatives’ dialogue with India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, set the ball rolling and PM Modi’s visit to Tianjin for the SCO Summit on 31 August was the validation of the progress undertaken. Agreements to recommence direct air connectivity and cross-border trade mechanisms, frozen since 2020, were the highlights. 

China also agreed to lift export restrictions on critical commodities like fertilisers, rare earths, and tunnelling machinery while emphasising that border disputes and economic and trade ties could be delinked, framing India as a ‘partner, not rival’. 

Yet, all this cannot be termed as a return to business as usual between the two Asian powers. For India, restoring the status quo ante along the Line of Actual Control and peace on the border remains a prerequisite for normalising relations with China fully. China’s support to Pakistan continues to be a major factor of discord. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), BRI and the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) as well as China’s attempts to expand its strategic presence in India’s neighbourhood, especially Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Maldives and Myanmar and Nepal, add to security vulnerabilities for India. 

Russia- Continuing story of reliability, support and trust (RST)

Russia continued to be a reliable and trusted partner for India. Despite strongest western pressure since Russia launched ‘special military operations’ inside Ukraine in February 2022, and especially since Trump 2.0 commencing in January this year, India withstood all the pressure and continued its strong partnership with its time-tested ally, Russia.  While Russia views India as a dependable partner in Asia, India values Russia’s critical role in energy supplies, defence preparedness and the delicate strategic balancing it provides India in its relations with China. 

Keeping his commitment, President Putin visited India in December for the annual summit. The signals coming out of the visit only reiterated the deep foundation of the relationship and served as a powerful reaffirmation of mutual trust, respect for each other’s core national interests and strategic convergence. This year also marked the 25th anniversary of the Declaration on Strategic Partnership between India and Russia, established during the first state visit of President Putin to India in October 2000. Agreements during Putin’s visit to enhance mobility of skilled workers, building stable and efficient transport corridors, expand trade horizons and talks on enhancing defence and security partnerships were a testimony of the deep strategic relationship. 

India’s neighbourhood- Messy and chaotic

Despite India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy, India’s influence over the neighbourhood remained patchy and the developments in many of the countries dangerous to India’s security interests. Bangladesh remained a key area of concern with no semblance of stability despite more than a year of Younus Government. Despite the announcement of elections in February 2026, the political and security scene presents an extremely fragile picture. Lynching and murder of Hindus in Bangladesh and attempts by Hindus towards mass exodus towards India could put overwhelming pressure on Indian borders. With reports of Pakistan meddling in political and military affairs in Bangladesh, the next few months are very crucial in Bangladesh.

In Nepal, the GenZ protests triggered by banning of 26 social media platforms in September took an ugly turn leading to chaos, looting and burning on streets of Kathmandu. The protests led to the PM Oli led government to resign and former Chief Justice Sushila Karki being sworn in as the interim Prime Minister, who will oversee the transition in Nepal by March 2026. Coming a year after the overthrow of the government in Bangladesh, it presents yet another challenge in India’s neighbourhood.

Elsewhere in the neighbourhood, the election process in Myanmar has commenced on 28th December but is unlikely to throw up any challenges to the military Junta. In Bhutan, the indirect tussle for influence between India and China continues while Bhutan hedges its interests. PM Modi’s visit to Bhutan from 11-12 November to mark the 70th Birth Anniversary of the Fourth Druk Gyalpo in Changlimithang was an effort to keep Bhutan close to India. In Sri Lanka, India continues to assist in its economic recovery. India’s outreach to Afghanistan was yet another highlight of the year. The decision to host Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi on 9th October and upgrade India’s diplomatic presence in Kabul to an embassy was a big diplomatic push.

Conclusion

India’s journey in 2025 was both a challenge as well as an opportunity. India was forced to make tough choices in securing its national interests and its regional engagement. India withstood pressure from powerful players and made unprecedented strategic decisions. Adding to it, cautious re-engagement with China, continuing steadfast partnership with Russia and the bold response to cross border terror points to a new confident India, a signal of how 2026 may shape the strategic choices for India as it marches onwards on the path to its vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047.

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