Under Trump, what will the ‘American dream’ ask of international students in 2026?
The final weeks of 2025 offered little relief for international education in the United States. As the government finalised changes to the H-1B visa process and a federal court upheld a new $100,000 fee for certain H-1B petitions, it became clear that immigration policy would remain a central pressure point in 2026.The direction was already visible a month earlier, when the White House released its National Security Strategy in November 2025. The document formally severed a long-standing assumption in American policy: that immigration and innovation move together. Instead, it placed immigration squarely within a national security and labour-protection framework, signalling that access to the US would be judged less by global talent arguments and more by domestic workforce priorities.
A shift from innovation to labour protection
For international students, this shift matters most not at the border, but in what comes after graduation. Two areas are now under close watch: Optional Practical Training (OPT) and the rules governing how long students can remain in the country while studying.
OPT under pressure
OPT, which allows international students to work in the US for up to three years after graduation while remaining on a student visa, has long functioned as a bridge between education and employment. It helps students offset high tuition costs, gain experience and test whether long-term pathways such as the H-1B visa are viable.In 2026, that bridge looks less secure. Policy signals suggest tighter oversight, narrower eligibility and higher compliance requirements for employers. Even without outright cancellation, increased scrutiny alone is likely to alter behaviour. Employers may hesitate before hiring international graduates, and students may reassess whether a US degree still offers a reliable return on investment.The risk is not abstract. Past surveys show that a large share of international students chose the US specifically because OPT made post-study work possible. If those expectations weaken, enrolment decisions will follow.
Duration of status and administrative uncertainty
Alongside OPT, the proposed change to duration of status may prove even more disruptive in administrative terms. In August 2025, the Department of Homeland Security proposed replacing the current system, which allows students to stay for the length of their studies, with fixed visa time limits of up to four years.This proposal revives an idea from Trump’s first term and would affect most international students regardless of discipline or institution. The change would require students who take longer to complete their degrees to apply for extensions, adding cost, paperwork and uncertainty. This matters because degree completion timelines have shifted across the sector. In recent years, only about one-third of students finished within four years, even before accounting for disruptions caused by the pandemic.On its own, a fixed duration of status may not deter every prospective student. Combined with uncertainty around OPT, H-1B pathways and visa processing speeds, it contributes to a sense of instability that shapes long-term planning.
Enrolment trends already turning downwards
That instability is already visible in enrolment data. New international student enrolments fell by 17% in Fall 2025, following months of policy turbulence during Trump’s second term. Observers expect further declines in 2026, though the impact will not be evenly distributed. Institutions with strong employment outcomes and clear career pathways may weather the shift better than those that depend on large volumes of price-sensitive students.At the same time, competing destinations are adjusting their strategies. Countries such as Canada and Australia are promoting clearer post-study work routes and faster visa processes, positioning themselves as predictable alternatives. Canada, in particular, has signalled plans to attract skilled workers already in the US, including H-1B holders facing uncertainty.
What universities can still control
For universities, the challenge in 2026 will be to manage what federal policy cannot or will not stabilise. Immigration advising, employer partnerships, housing support and transparent programme design will play a larger role in student decision-making. So will global partnerships such as dual degrees, exchanges and research collaborations that reduce dependence on a single country’s visa regime.
A narrower version of the American dream
Political change remains a distant variable. The November 2026 midterm elections could alter the balance of power in Congress, but any effect on immigration policy would come later. For now, international students face a shrunk version of the American dream, one that asks for higher tolerance of risk, greater financial resilience and patience with changing rules.
