Gold, silver outlook: Bullion set for volatile week amid US data, Venezuela crisis; analysts warn of swings

Gold and silver prices are expected to remain highly volatile in the coming week as investors react to key US economic data and rising geopolitical tensions following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by US forces, analysts said.Market participants will closely track a series of important US indicators, including ISM Manufacturing data, December ADP employment figures and the unemployment rate. Comments from several US Federal Reserve officials are also likely to influence sentiment, as traders look for signals on the future path of interest rates and the near-term direction of bullion prices, as per PTI.“Gold prices are likely to remain volatile in the week ahead as there are bullish as well as bearish factors at play,” said Prathamesh Mallya, DVP – research, non-agri commodities and currencies at Angel One, according to PTI.Experts expect aggressive trading at the start of the week, particularly on Monday, as markets digest the geopolitical fallout from the US military operation in Venezuela. The operation reportedly led to the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, with US authorities accusing them of drug trafficking. Analysts warned that the development could unsettle global markets and push both bullion and crude oil prices higher on concerns over potential supply disruptions from Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, reported PTI.Despite the supportive geopolitical backdrop, gold prices corrected sharply last week after hitting record levels in late December. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures fell by Rs 4,112, or 2.94 per cent. The yellow metal had earlier surged to a lifetime high of Rs 1,40,444 per 10 grams before sliding over 3 per cent to settle at Rs 1,35,761 per 10 grams on Friday.Mallya attributed the recent decline to profit booking at elevated levels, along with thin liquidity due to year-end and Christmas holidays. He noted that gold traded in a wide range of Rs 1,34,000 to Rs 1,40,000 per 10 grams during the week, reflecting heavy selling pressure and choppy market conditions, as per PTI.Silver prices mirrored gold’s volatility. On the MCX, silver slipped by Rs 3,471, or 1.45 per cent, over the week. After touching a record high of Rs 2,54,174 per kg, prices dropped sharply by Rs 17,858, or 7.02 per cent, to close at Rs 2,36,316 per kg on Friday.Internationally, Comex gold futures declined by $223.1, or 4.9 per cent, during the holiday-shortened week, ending at $4,329.6 per ounce. Silver saw an even steeper fall, sliding 8 per cent, or $6.18. After hitting a record of $82.67 per ounce, silver tumbled 14.1 per cent, or $11.65, to settle at $71.01 per ounce, reported PTI.Pankaj Singh, founder and principal researcher at Smart Wealth AI, said gold’s ability to hold near the $4,300-per-ounce level reflects cautious investor positioning amid easing US inflation and continued safe-haven demand. He added that Silver witnessed a short-term correction after CME Group raised margin requirements for gold futures, which forced a reduction in leveraged positions and triggered selling across ComexLooking ahead to 2026, Singh said gold could rise by 10 to 60 per cent over the year, though sharp interim corrections of up to 20 per cent remain possible in a volatile environment. Silver, he said, faces a potential downside risk of 5 to 30 per cent, but strong industrial demand could drive prices as much as 40 per cent higher if supply constraints persist.“Structurally bullish, policy-driven precious metals cycle may continue, but risk of significant corrections is also possible,” Singh said, reported PTI.