When raids empty paycheques: How immigration enforcement is quietly shrinking America’s workforce

Edward Flores has developed a habit common to economists but rare in politics: he lets the numbers speak before forming a conclusion. Month after month, as federal immigration enforcement intensified across parts of the US, particularly California, the numbers spoke with growing clarity. What they revealed was not merely social disruption but economic retreat.Flores, an associate professor of sociology and faculty director of the UC Merced Labor Center, analysed US Census Bureau employment data from late May and early June as reported by the LA Times. What emerged was a collapse in reported private-sector employment in California, down 3.1% in a matter of weeks. In modern economic memory, Flores noted, such a sharp decline had only one parallel: The lockdown months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

When enforcement meets the labour market

Rather than a one-off drop, the contraction deepened. Flores continued his analysis each month following June, tracking how labour participation responded as immigration raids spread and intensified. Only October broke the sequence, when a federal government shutdown suspended census data collection for the first time in nearly five decades.By early July, the numbers had worsened. California’s private-sector workforce shrank by 4.9%, a loss of nearly 742,500 workers. August brought partial relief, but not because the economy improved organically. A temporary intervention by a US district judge halted roving immigration patrols that had been stopping individuals based on perceived ethnicity, language, or occupation. Employment figures stabilised slightly after the ruling, suggesting a direct link between enforcement practices and workforce participation.Even with the rebound, the damage endured. Between May and September, California’s private-sector employment remained 2.9% below pre-raid levels, according to Flores’ latest assessment.

Unequal fallout

The decline did not strike uniformly. Noncitizen women experienced the steepest losses, with reported employment dropping by 8.6%. In practical terms, that meant roughly one in twelve noncitizen women disappeared from payrolls after raids escalated in Los Angeles in early June.Citizens, too, were affected. Between May and July, they accounted for the largest numerical decline, around 415,000 workers. But proportionally, noncitizens were hit far harder. Their employment fell 12.3% during that period, compared with a 3.3% drop among citizens.

A pattern repeated elsewhere

California was not alone. In August, Washington, DC, became another case study. As hundreds of National Guard troops were deployed and local police were federally deputised under the banner of crime control, despite official data showing crime was falling, the district’s private-sector employment dropped 3.3%, according to UC Merced’s analysis.When federal oversight of local policing ended in September, employment rebounded modestly, rising by 0.5%. No comparable employment shocks appeared elsewhere in the country, where most states recorded stagnant figures or slight gains during the same months.

The end of a long expansion

Economists say these local disruptions point to a larger national shift. For the first time in more than half a century, the US immigrant workforce is shrinking.Data from the Pew Research Center show that the US was home to 53.3 million immigrants in January 2025, nearly 16% of the population. By June, that number had fallen to 51.9 million, a decline of over one million people. Researchers believe the downward trend has continued.Deportations account for part of the drop. But Flores and other economists point to additional forces: fewer people choosing to migrate to the US, long-term residents leaving voluntarily, and many remaining indoors, unwilling to risk travelling to work.

Policy, not just policing

Flores argues that economic recovery cannot be separated from policy reform. He has called for measures such as emergency cash assistance and expanded access to unemployment insurance, benefits undocumented immigrants are currently excluded from, despite paying payroll taxes.Such interventions, he says, would not only ease hardship but also stabilise local economies by restoring consumer spending power in low-income communities.The spreadsheets Flores reviews each month may appear clinical, but together they narrate a quieter crisis, one unfolding not through headlines or protests, but through empty worksites, absent paycheques, and an economy learning what happens when a vital workforce retreats into the shadows.