Trade wars, turbulence and strategic readjustment

If one theme defined global geopolitics in 2025, it was the unmistakable return of hard-edged great power politics. Trade, technology, territory and terror once again became instruments of statecraft, while diplomacy struggled to keep pace with intensifying rivalries. For India, the year was a severe test of strategic autonomy — one that revealed both the costs and the necessity of manoeuvring in a deeply polarised international system.

The year opened with economic confrontation. The United States’ decision to impose steep tariffs on Indian exports marked one of the most disruptive episodes in bilateral relations in recent memory. What was framed in Washington as a trade correction quickly evolved into a political signal — that partnerships, even strategic ones, would be subordinated to transactional nationalism. The fallout was immediate. Indian exporters were hit, diplomatic channels hardened, and public sentiment in both countries turned sceptical. More significantly, the episode punctured the assumption that shared concerns over China would automatically insulate the India–US relationship from economic coercion.

New Delhi’s response was measured rather than reactionary. Instead of rushing into concessions, India diversified trade options, reinforced energy security through continued imports from Russia and West Asia, and reiterated that strategic partnerships could not be sustained on pressure alone. This posture did not eliminate friction, but it prevented escalation. India signalled that it would absorb short-term economic pain rather than compromise long-term autonomy — a message that resonated across the Global South watching how middle powers withstand great power pressure.

The strain inevitably affected the Quad — the grouping of the United States, India, Japan and Australia that has symbolised Indo-Pacific convergence over the past decade. The postponement of the Quad summit, which India was scheduled to host, reflected this diplomatic unease. Yet the Quad did not unravel. Functional cooperation on maritime awareness, supply chain resilience, critical technologies and disaster relief continued quietly. What changed was tone: less declaratory politics, more issue-based coordination. In many ways, the Quad’s persistence despite leadership-level disruptions underscored its maturation beyond symbolism.

While economic tensions dominated headlines, war continued to shape strategic realities elsewhere. In Europe, the Russia–Ukraine conflict dragged into another brutal year. Despite intermittent diplomatic efforts and renewed talks involving major powers, the war remained unresolved by the end of 2025. Military escalation, drone warfare and civilian suffering persisted, even as fatigue spread across Europe. India’s position — advocating dialogue while maintaining ties with Moscow — attracted criticism from some Western quarters but also reflected geopolitical realism. For New Delhi, the conflict reinforced the dangers of bloc politics and the limits of moral absolutism in foreign policy.

China’s behaviour in 2025 further confirmed the sharpening of global fault lines. Military posturing around Taiwan intensified, signalling Beijing’s readiness to test red lines while stopping short of full-scale conflict. Simultaneously, China expanded diplomatic engagement through multilateral platforms and economic outreach, positioning itself as an alternative pole to Western-led systems. For India, China remained the most complex strategic challenge — a neighbour with whom relations are neither at war nor at peace. Border tensions remained unresolved, and China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean continued to stretch India’s strategic bandwidth.

The Middle East added another layer of instability. The Israel–Palestine conflict deepened humanitarian crises and regional polarisation before a fragile ceasefire brought temporary relief late in the year. Iran’s shadow role, militia violence and maritime insecurity underlined how quickly local conflicts can acquire global implications. India’s approach — maintaining strong ties with Israel while advocating humanitarian protection for Palestinians — reflected its balancing act in a region critical for energy, trade and diaspora interests.

Perhaps the most unsettling development of 2025 was the resurgence of Islamist terrorism across regions. In South Asia, a deadly terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir once again exposed the fragility of peace along the Line of Control and reignited India–Pakistan tensions. Later in the year, a car bomb near Delhi’s Red Fort shattered the illusion that India’s urban centres were insulated from such threats. The revelation that the attack involved a covert, domestically embedded network raised uncomfortable questions about radicalisation, intelligence gaps and the evolving nature of terrorism.

The threat was not confined to India. The Bondi attack in Australia, targeting a Jewish gathering, demonstrated how extremist ideologies transcend borders, feeding off global grievances and digital ecosystems. Meanwhile, political instability and radical mobilisation in parts of Bangladesh added to India’s neighbourhood anxieties. These developments reinforced a sobering reality: terrorism in 2025 was less hierarchical, more decentralised and increasingly difficult to pre-empt.

India–Pakistan relations, already fragile, deteriorated further amid mutual recriminations and military posturing. While full-scale escalation was avoided, the absence of meaningful dialogue underscored the structural deadlock between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Pakistan’s internal instability and India’s zero-tolerance stance on terrorism ensured that détente remained elusive.

Taken together, 2025 revealed a world drifting away from cooperative security and towards competitive coexistence. Institutions struggled, alliances frayed and economic interdependence became a weapon rather than a stabiliser. For India, the year reaffirmed the logic of strategic autonomy — not as passive non-alignment, but as active multi-alignment. New Delhi engaged where interests converged, resisted where pressure mounted, and hedged where uncertainty prevailed.

Seen from a wider global lens, 2025 marked a decisive moment in the reordering of international politics. Power is dispersing, norms are contested and institutions are under strain. In this unsettled landscape, India’s significance lies not merely in its size or economic promise, but in its capacity to act with restraint, responsibility and strategic clarity. By upholding autonomy without isolation, engagement without subordination, and security without adventurism, India can help stabilise an increasingly fractured world. The challenge ahead is not to choose sides in great power rivalry, but to shape a more balanced and inclusive order — one in which India is not just a participant, but a pillar.

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