Cousins unite, MVA disintegrates? How Thackeray alliance isolates Congress in Maharashtra | India News

NEW DELHI: The much-hyped reunion of the Thackeray cousins after 20 years has altered the political landscape of Maharashtra with the new alliance signalling the silent end of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – the opposition front which Uddhav formed with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP in 2019 to keep the BJP out of power after the assembly elections.The MVA, which ruled the state for two-and-a-half years, was dealt a body blow in 2022 when the Shiv Sena and the NCP split down the middle after rebellion against Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Despite the setback, the opposition coalition came back strongly in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning 30 out of the 48 seats in the state. But that glory was short-lived as the MVA was decimated in the assembly elections held later in the year and could collectively win only 46 out of the 288 seats.

While the assembly elections had already taken the sting out of the MVA, the Thackeray alliance has now literally left the coalition on the verge of disintegration. Sharad Pawar has indicated he will align with the Thackeray cousins, but the Congress has been left in the lurch as it refused to join hands with Raj Thackeray’s MNS, given his aggressive “outsiders” pitch against north Indians. So, where does the Congress go from here? The immediate test for the grand-old-party is the elections to 29 civic corporations in Maharashtra, including the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, on January 15. The just-concluded municipal council and nagar panchayat elections, which were swept by the BJP-led Mahayuti, saw the Congress emerge as the main opposition party. While the Congress won 824 seats, its MVA allies – NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT) – could manage only 256 and 244 seats respectively. Little wonder, the Congress, which had for some time now played second fiddle to both Uddhav and Sharad Pawar, was quick to assert that it has now emerged as the principal opposition in the state.Maharashtra Congress chief Harshwardhan Sapkal on Thursday said his party is holding discussions to form an alliance with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) for the upcoming municipal corporation elections. But will this alliance be enough to help the grand-old-party counter the force of ruling Mahayuti on one hand and the strong Marathi pitch of the Thackeray brothers on the other?The Congress move to chart its own course in Maharashtra is a bold gambit. The party which had a fairly strong presence in the state politics till 2009, has since seen its electoral fortunes decline. In the 2024 assembly elections, the Congress could win only 16 seats out of the 101 it contested in the 288-member assembly. The Congress vote share stood at 12.42% – which is the lowest for the party in Maharashtra, but still more than all other players in the state except the BJP.The Congress would be hoping to draw support from the minorities, Dalits and also the migrant voters by staying away from Raj Thackeray. It would also hope to insulate itself from anti-incumbency against Uddhav Thackeray, whose Shiv Sena has dominated the BMC for many years.However, this solo fight pitches the Congress against the BJP – which has been an undisputed winner in all recent electoral contests. The move also ends up dividing the opposition space in the civic polls, giving the BJP-led Mahayuti an advantage. The local body elections will also put to the test the Congress’s organisational strength – which has seen a decline in many states. If, despite these challenges, the Congress does manage a decent show in the civic polls, it could pave the way for a changed thinking in its alliance politics. On the flip side, a poor show could push it more towards oblivion and reduce the party’s bargaining power.The Congress, for now, says that independent contests by MVA constituents in civic elections should not be seen as a rift within either the MVA or the INDIA bloc. Leader of Opposition Vijay Wadettiwar justified the party’s solo stance and said that while the INDIA bloc had fought the Lok Sabha elections together and the MVA contested the assembly polls as a united front, local body elections operate under different political realities.However, if the Thackeray clan bonhomie translates into electoral gains for both Uddhav and Raj, the Congress will have to be prepared for a long solo stint in the state.