2025 Box Office Report Card: Trade Experts on the hits like ‘Dhurandhar’, ‘Mahavtar Narsimha’, ‘Kantara’, ‘Saiyaara’, key learnings to take and hopes from 2026 – EXCLUSIVE |

And just like that, 2025 is nearing its end, giving us a moment to look back at how the year unfolded at the box office. Cinema has always been a gamble, but one truth continues to hold firm, strong content eventually finds its audience. While the big-ticket films arrive with expectations of ringing the cash registers, every year also throws up a few surprises in the form of sleeper hits. 2025 was no exception. Here’s a look at the biggest hits of the year and what trade experts have to say about the trends, learnings and the road ahead.

Summing up the year

‘Thodi Khushi thoda gham,’ is what we say every year lately and this year seems no different. “Well, it’s been a mixed bag, actually. There have been films that became hits and there have also been failures. But the good part is that content has been driving the audiences to theatres. Stardom can work for a day or two, but after that, it’s the content that people talk about. If you look at films from ‘Chhaava’ to now Dhurandhar, of course stardom is there, no denying that, but the content is speaking louder than words,” explains trade expert Taran Adarsh.

He further added, “A good example is ‘Saiyaara’, which starred newcomers and worked purely on the strength of its content and music. There was ‘Sitaare Zameen Par’, there was ‘Raid 2’ this year, and ‘Dhurandhar’, of course. Films like ‘Ek Deewane Ki Deewaniyat’ and ‘Tere Ishk Mein’ have also done well.” Trade expert Girish Wankhede echoes a similar sentiment and adds, “Overall, 2025 has been an average year for Bollywood. Whereas we usually see 15–18 bonafide superhits annually, this year produced fewer big winners. Still, a handful of films like ‘Chhaava’, ‘Saiyaara’ and ‘Dhurandhar’ and ‘Kantara: Chapter 1’ — have delivered enormous box-office returns. ‘Dhurandhar’ in particular, shows no sign of slowing down, posting strong numbers even in midnight shows; it looks set to become the fastest film to join the Rs 1,000 crore club and could potentially go as high as Rs 1,500 crore. Those blockbuster performances are a welcome respite in an otherwise muted year for Hindi cinema.”

The K-shape model

Producer and Film Business expert, Girish Johar explains it at length by giving it a name. He calls it the ‘K-shape model’. Further elaborating on it, he adds, “The big hits have become bigger. Medium hits are no longer visible, and the number of washouts is also increasing. So, as I say, I believe we are seeing a K-shaped model. If a film does well and is appreciated by the public, it shoots up from Friday evening onwards or from day one of its release, and then amplifies further over Saturday and Sunday. But if a big film releases on day one and is not liked by the audience, earlier we used to say that three days would see it through, but that’s no longer happening.” He adds, “Hope you can imagine that. So, it’s a K-shaped model, as I call it. Having said that, yes, quite a few films we all know, ‘Chhaava’, ‘Dhurandhar’, and others like ‘Saiyaara’, ‘Mahavtar Narsimha’, and also ‘Tere Ishq Mein’. These are not the only ones, obviously, but they are the standout performers of the year. They have done fantastic numbers and, more importantly, have been liked by the audience. While the year still has few more days to end, overall, I can say there’s a growth of 10-12 percent this year overall at the box office as compared to 2024.”

Biggest hit in terms of ROI (Return On Investment)

While in terms of numbers, ‘Dhurandhar’ looks like the biggest grossing movie of the year and it is still running in theatres so it will continue to bring in numbers even in the next year. However, it terms of the return on investment, one can say that films like ‘Mahavtar Narsimha’, ‘Saiyaara’ and ‘Ek Deewane Ki Deewaniyat’ stole the show and surpassed expectations. Johar adds, “In terms of ROI, ‘Mahavtar Narsimha’ is the biggest hit. It was an animated film with no big stars or even voice over from any big star. The profit it earned was ten folds of its making.” Wankhede points out, “The biggest surprise of the year was undoubtedly ‘Mahavatar Narasimha’, a devotional animated film originally made in Kannada. Produced on a modest budget of around Rs 40 crore and released across Hindi, Tamil and Telugu, it went on to earn approximately Rs 327 crore, an exceptional return for an animation with mythological themes. Another unexpected hit was ‘Ek Deewane ki Deewaniyat’, starring Harshvardhan Rane and Sonam Bajwa; made for roughly Rs 25 crore, it proved a sleeper success. ‘Saiyaara’ resonated strongly with GenZ, emerging as one of the season’s major blockbusters, produced for around Rs 45 crore. And, of course, ‘Dhurandhar’ surprised many with its runaway success, made on a budget of about Rs 250 crore, it has crossed the ₹1,000 crore mark worldwide, solidifying its position as the year’s dominant tentpole.”

Is there a trend? Is romance back as a genre?

This year, with ‘Saiyaara’, ‘Tere Ishk Mein’ and ‘Ek Deewane Ki Deewaniyat’, it seemed like romance is back and how. Taran Adarsh says, “I was happy to see that romance is back. And if you notice all these three films are love stories, but the music played an integral part in their impact, more than just the genre.” However, Johar doesn’t feel we should consider this as a trend for romantic movies. “I don’t think audiences are favouring any particular genre; they are favouring good content. What has happened post-COVID, with the OTT onslaught and everything else, is that traditional stardom has diminished a little. But the same actor, backed by a good concept and strong content, multiplies their appeal manyfold. So, for me, the content and the concept have now become the real stars.”

Key learnings to take from 2025

One of the things which need to be learnt is to cater to the masses and not just the multiplex audience. Taran Adarsh opines, “I think we should not neglect our Tier 2 and Tier 3 centres. Filmmakers have been neglecting them for a long time. They’ve been making metro-centric films, which is not right. What happens to the Tier 2 and Tier 3 centres then? They stop coming to theatres. That’s the reason why, earlier in the 70s and 80s, and I’ve seen this with my own eyes, is that every film used to get an opening. Every film would take a start and then either run or collapse.”

Johar adds that one of the things to take notice of this year is that eventually, it’s not stardom which works but the emotion behind a film. He says, “Emotion is the content. If you look at animation, the quality is at a good level because we are exposed to global animation like Disney and others. But it was the emotion that connected with audiences in case of ‘Mahavtar Narsimha’. They went into theatres, taking their slippers and shoes off outside and all that. It’s the emotion that truly connects with people.” He further explained, “Just to elaborate on this further that it’s no longer about stars, Ranveer Singh did ‘Jayeshbhai Jordaar’, which was not appreciated. But the same Ranveer Singh has done ‘Dhurandhar’, which is backed by the right making, the right concept, and everything else. People have connected with the film, and it is probably becoming the biggest Hindi film of all time.” “I can say that the last star whom people wanted to watch purely for stardom is hands down, Salman Khan, because even his weaker films open to Rs 100 crore. I probably feel Ranbir Kapoor also has that potential, but he operates in a slightly different space. To me, the trend this year or learning this year is that, actor-driven stardom has come down a little, while concept and genre-driven films are now creating stars and superstars.”

Expectations from 2026

All the trade experts have their eye on 2026 and unanimously are looking forward to some big movies lined up – from ‘Ramayana’ to ‘Love And War’ and of course, ‘Dhurandhar 2’. Girish Johar says, “2026 is again going to be one of the biggest years for Indian cinema, both in terms of box office and overall scale. Mammoth releases are being planned. Obviously, we have Hollywood content Nolan films, ‘Avengers’, and many other big releases. We also have Shah Rukh Khan’s ‘King’, a couple of releases by Akshay Kumar, ‘Dhurandhar 2’, and the biggest of them all, ‘Ramayana’.” He adds, “Ramayana will probably be one of the biggest films of all time, if done right. From whatever little I know, they’re planning to dub it into numerous languages using lip-sync technology. So, if audiences watch the film in Spanish, the lip-sync and audio will both be in Spanish. That’s what they’re planning. We don’t know how much of this will actually unfold, we’re too far ahead to say—but if done right and if expectations are met, it’s going to be a massive film. There are several other films as well.”Wankhede says, “The biggest film of 2026 is widely expected to be Dhurandhar Part 2, which is slated for an Eid release and has already started building the kind of pre-release buzz usually reserved for mega-franchises like Pushpa 2. Industry chatter suggests it could post one of the biggest openings of the year and become the top box-office generator, establishing itself as the season’s standout success.” He lists out the releases of 2025 further saying, “Several other high-profile releases are generating strong anticipation. Border 2, arriving in January with Sunny Deol attached, looks set to energize the patriotic crowd. Shah Rukh Khan’s much-awaited project King, his first major outing after a quiet 2025, is also being touted as a potential blockbuster. Alpha, a proposed female-led spy-universe film featuring Alia Bhatt, has been postponed but remains one of the most talked-about titles. Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s Love and War, reportedly starring Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal and Alia Bhatt, is another prestige project on the radar. Priyadarshan’s Bhoot Bangla with Akshay Kumar, Ajay Devgn and Tabu’s Drishyam 3, and the ambitious Ramayana, directed by Nitesh Tiwari and featuring Ranbir Kapoor and Yash, round out a slate that promises a busy and commercially exciting 2026 for Indian cinema.”Adarsh concludes, “I’m a born optimist, and I’m very confident about 2026. There are several big films lined up, but there could be smaller surprises as well. We should not underestimate any film.”